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GasPredictor.com's Track Record for New York, NY, April, 2012
Our published forecasts for New York, NY for the month of April, 2012. Success rate for the month: 100%.
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Results for April, 2012
| Date of Prediction | Buy Today Recommended? |
Pressure | Predicted Price Range | Next-Day Actual Price |
In Predicted Range? | Buy -- No Buy Correct? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/02/2012 | Yes | +0.083 | 3.969 - 4.025 | 3.999 | Yes | Yes |
| 04/03/2012 | Yes | +0.011 | 3.999 - 4.013 | 3.999 | Yes | Yes |
| 04/04/2012 | No | -0.071 | 3.945 - 3.999 | 3.979 | Yes | Yes |
| 04/05/2012 | No | -0.032 | 3.943 - 3.979 | 3.979 | Yes | Yes |
| 04/09/2012 | No | -0.102 | 3.902 - 3.979 | 3.979 | Yes | Yes |
| 04/10/2012 | No | -0.157 | 3.860 - 3.979 | 3.979 | Yes | Yes |
| 04/11/2012 | Yes | +0.008 | 3.969 - 3.989 | 4.039 | No | Yes |
| 04/12/2012 | Yes | +0.037 | 4.039 - 4.064 | 4.059 | Yes | Yes |
| 04/13/2012 | No | -0.057 | 4.007 - 4.059 | 4.059 | Yes | Yes |
| 04/16/2012 | No | -0.152 | 3.945 - 4.059 | 4.059 | Yes | Yes |
| 04/17/2012 | No | -0.191 | 3.937 - 4.059 | 4.059 | Yes | Yes |
| 04/18/2012 | No | -0.229 | 3.937 - 4.059 | 4.039 | Yes | Yes |
| 04/19/2012 | No | -0.267 | 3.917 - 4.039 | 4.039 | Yes | Yes |
| 04/20/2012 | No | -0.280 | 3.893 - 4.039 | 4.019 | Yes | Yes |
| 04/23/2012 | No | -0.162 | 3.938 - 4.060 | 4.019 | Yes | Yes |
| 04/24/2012 | No | -0.240 | 3.898 - 4.019 | 4.009 | Yes | Yes |
| 04/25/2012 | No | -0.235 | 3.888 - 4.009 | 3.999 | Yes | Yes |
| 04/26/2012 | No | -0.164 | 3.919 - 4.039 | 3.999 | Yes | Yes |
| 04/27/2012 | Yes | +0.009 | 3.987 - 4.009 | 3.999 | Yes | Yes |
| 04/30/2012 | No | -0.041 | 3.968 - 3.999 | 3.999 | Yes | Yes |
Key
- Date of Prediction - The date we issued this prediction, pertaining to the next business day.
- Buy Today Recommended? - Did we recommend buying gas that day ("yes"), or waiting to buy gas the next day ("no.")
- Pressure - How strong is tendency for prices to change? (Negative = down, positive = up.) 0 - 0.09 weak; 0.1 - 0.19 moderate; 0.2 - 0.29 strong; 0.3 - 0.39 very strong; 0.4 and up extremely strong.
- Predicted Price Range - What did we predict as minimum and maximum prices for the next business day?
- Next-Day Actual Price - What was the actual retail price of gasoline the day after our prediction?
- In Predicted Range? - Was our price prediction correct? Was the retail price of gasoline within our predicted range that day?
- Buy -- No Buy Correct? - Was our recommendation to buy or not to buy correct, regardless of whether prices were actually within our forecast range? Would you have realized a savings, or at least not realized a loss, by following our recommendation? NOTE: This is our main critereon for a successful prediction, not the price range.
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Our prediction algorithm is designed to predict the change in retail price of regular unleaded gas at the second cheapest gas stations. Each day, based on that prediction, we recommend whether to buy gas today, or whether you would come out ahead by waiting until tomorrow. We check our prediction against the most recent available prices at the second cheapest gas stations in our test areas. If you would have saved money, or not lost money, by following our recommendation, we call that a successful prediction.
