Date of Prediction	Buy Today Recommended?	Next-Day Actual Price	Buy -- No Buy Correct?
12/01/2011	No	Down	Yes
12/02/2011	Yes	Up	Yes
12/05/2011	Yes	Down *	Yes
12/06/2011	Yes	Up	Yes
12/07/2011	No	Down	Yes
12/08/2011	No	Down	Yes
12/09/2011	Yes	Up	Yes
12/12/2011	No	Down	Yes
12/13/2011	Yes	Up	Yes
12/14/2011	No	Down	Yes
12/15/2011	No	Down	Yes
12/16/2011	No	Down	Yes
12/19/2011	No	Steady	Yes
12/20/2011	Yes	Up	Yes
12/21/2011	Yes	Steady	Yes
12/22/2011	Yes	Steady	Yes
12/23/2011 **	Yes	Steady	Yes
12/27/2011 **	Yes	Up	Yes
12/28/2011	Yes	Up	Yes
12/29/2011	Yes	Steady	Yes
12/30/2011	Yes	Up	Yes

* Note: Under some circumstances, the average among the 12 cities in our national prediction model may move in the opposite direction from what we predicted, and yet we still consider that a successful prediction. These circumstances include: 1) "Steady" pressure, where prices may move in either direction within a predicted range; 2) "Mixed" pressure, where some of our 12 cities are trending one way and some the other, and the actual net result may be different from what the average trend suggested. In either of these cases, we publish the predicted range for the next day's average prices, and we call it a successful prediction if: a) the actual change in average price was in the direction indicated by average pressure, regardless of the amount of the change; or b) the next day's actual average price was within the predicted range.

** Note: Figures for pressure and predicted price range published on 12/23/2011 and 12/27/2011 were based on estimated values for changes in Gulf Coast Gasoline Futures. Actual closing prices for Gulf Coast Gasoline Futures were not published on 12/23/2011, so we estimated what those prices would be based on the change in price of New York Harbor Gasoline Futures. Then, when correct figures were publised on 12/27/2011, they were lower than our estimate from the previous Friday. Since Gulf Coast Gasoline Futures did not actually decrease on 12/27/2011, we tweaked our prediction algorithm to tell it the change as slightly upward, even though the new value was slightly lower. From this point forward, our usual calculations will work fine, as long as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange publishes their market closing data on time.

Key

Date of Prediction - The date we issued this prediction, pertaining to the next business day.
Buy Today Recommended? - Did we recommend buying gas that day ("yes"), or waiting to buy gas the next day ("no.")
Next-Day Actual Price - Which direction did retail gasoline prices move the day after our prediction?
Correct? - Was our recommendation correct? Would you have realized a savings, or at least not realized a loss, by following our recommendation?

More Track Records

Our prediction algorithm is designed to predict the change in retail price of regular unleaded gas at the second cheapest gas stations. Each day, based on that prediction, we recommend whether to buy gas today, or whether you would come out ahead by waiting until tomorrow. We check our prediction against the most recent available prices at the second cheapest gas stations in our test areas. If you would have saved money, or not lost money, by following our recommendation, we call that a successful prediction.

Disclaimer: This Web site, and all of its predictions and prediction devices, are for educational and entertainment purposes only. We will not be responsible for incorrect predictions, or for any damage or losses you may incur as a result of using these predictions. While we believe that our prediction algorithm works, you must accept responsibility for your choice to use this information.

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