About Gas Predictor

In ancient times, priests would attempt to predict future events by examining the entrails of a goat. Now, thanks to the miracles of 21st century science, we are able to examine the entrails of a goat without actually sacrificing the goat!

While this is certainly a good thing, and goats everywhere are rejoicing, it still doesn't help much when it comes to predicting the price of gas.

So, how does our prediction algorithm work? Very well, thank you!

Beyond that, we're not going to say much.

We will say that it depends on the closing price of near-term futures for unleaded gasoline exchanged on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and similar commodities markets. That's why we publish our predictions in the evening, after the market closing data are published. We compare that wholesale futures price to selected retail prices, using our own secret formula which does not involve the entrails of a goat or any other animal, and make our predictions.

Oh, come on, you say. How can you expect anyone to believe that you're correct over 99% of the time? Get real!

Actually, it's not as outlandish as you might think. Okay, if this were like predicting the results of a coin toss, a random prediction would be wrong 50% of the time. But predicting the price of gasoline tomorrow is not a 50-50 thing. Gas prices can do one of three things: Move up, move down, or stay the same! Since our predictions always include the possibility of prices remaining unchanged, the odds of a random prediction being correct are now about 66%. (Strictly speaking, when we say prices are going up, we're really saying they're not going down, and vice-versa. Unchanged prices always work out to a correct prediction.) Besides that, prices actually remain unchanged from one day to the next more often than not. You can see this in your own experience, but we have over two years worth of data to demonstrate that fact. So now, you see, the odds of a random prediction being correct are actually much higher than 66%. In that light, our 99% success rate is not so outlandish at all. In fact, the 70% success rate we have with some of our "unofficial" predictions is downright pathetic.

Hope that clears things up. We're not Kim Jong-il, you know, but we're pretty good at predicting gas prices.

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