How GasPredictor.com's Chicago Gas Predictor Newsletter Saves You Money

On this page:

• The Bottom Line
• Description of the test scenario
• Highlights of the test
• Table showing day-to-day events

The Bottom Line of the Test

Our subscriber paid $889.34 for gas since 3/9/2009. Our control driver paid $873.97. Our subscriber is ending the test with 8 more gallons of gas in his tank than the control driver has. The extra 8 gallons in the subscriber's tank is worth $21.35. Subtracting that from the amount he spent for gas means that he spent $5.98 less than the control driver did. Extrapolating this savings over a full year (262 business days) yields an annual savings of $8.75.

Following our recommendations would save you $8.75 per year, or $4.16 less than the cost of a one-year subscription to the Gas Predictor Newsletter.

And as a bonus, you get to smirk when you see the price go up and you knew it was going to go up. No extra charge.

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Description of the Test Scenario

This test compares two hypothetical drivers, the "subscriber" and the "control driver." Each has a car with a 14 gallon tank, each uses exactly two gallons of gasoline every business day, and each has just filled his tank the evening of March 8, 2009.

Our "control driver" does not subscribe to the Gas Predictor Newsletter. He simply leaves his gasoline budget to chance. He fills his tank whenever he gets home from work with only two gallons in the tank. Thus, he buys 12 gallons of gas every sixth business day, without regard to the cost. This represents the way most people buy gas, and shows how much a hypothetical driver would pay for gas without the benefit of our Gas Preditor.

On March 9, our "subscriber" begins receiving his Chicago Gas Predictor Newsletter by e-mail. Each night, he tries to follow our recommendations, even though he can not always do so. If we recommend buying gas that day, he fills his tank, even if he just filled it the night before. If we recommend holding off and buying gas the next day, he does not buy any gas unless his tank is absolutely empty. If his tank is empty, he buys four gallons of gas, to get him through the next couple of days, and yet leave enough room in his tank that he can take advantage of any buying opportunity that our newsletter recommends.

We recognize, of course, that this test is not quite realistic in several ways. For one thing, nobody uses exactly two gallons of gas every single day. And nobody drives their car only to work, not driving at all on non-business days. Nobody has off every day that the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) commodity exchange is closed. Nobody buys gas by the gallon, instead rounding up to the next dollar or otherwise easy amount of money to enter in their checkbook (or to make change, if they're paying in cash). And even though our predictions are perfectly wonderful, we're sure none of our subscribers would bother to buy just two gallons of gas because we recommended it. (No, even we don't do that.) However, we had to come up with fixed, simple rules in order to make the test a fair comparison between using our predictions and not using them.

For this test of the Chicago Gas Predictor Newsletter, the price of gas used is the second-lowest price for unleaded regular gasoline in the Chicago area at about 9:00 AM Central.

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Highlights of the Test

Note: Highlights occurring before April 3, 2009 are listed in our 100th issue summary.

• During the entire period April 3 through November 18, the control driver bought gas 26 times. Coincidentally, 20 of these times were also days when we recommended buying gas. He just got lucky! A slightly different turn of luck and our subscriber's savings would have been even greater.
• July 15: At the bottom of a long period of falling prices (started June 25), our subscriber fills up on bargain-priced gas. But the control driver's luck is holding, and he also fills up on this day.
• July 23: The low point of another small dip in prices, and again, both the subscriber and the control driver fill up on the same day.
• July 31: The control driver lucks out again, filling up the day before a sharp 6-cent price hike.
• August 26: Finally, the control driver fills up the day before a price decrease, but it only costs him a penny a gallon.
• September 8: Our prediction catches the low point of a price dip and our subscriber fills up. Prices have fallen 9 cents per gallon since the last time he topped off, and he is down to 2 gallons in the tank. Meanwhile, the control driver gassed up 2 days earlier and 4 cents higher.
• September 10: The biggest one-day drop in prices in Chicago since we began publishing our Chicago Gas Predictor. Gas prices fell 7 cents per gallon, and would stay at this level for a few more days. Neither driver bought gas this day, but both would end up filling up before prices rose again.
• September 15: Again we predict the bottom of a price dip, and the subscriber tops off. But again, the control driver got lucky and paid the same price the day before.
• October 16: Prices begin a protracted rising trend that will see prices up by 24 cents per gallon within two weeks. Both drivers buy gas this day, but the control driver buys his full 12 gallons while the subscriber is just topping off with 2 gallons of higher-priced gas.
• November 3: Just past the end of a run-up in prices, both drivers have full tanks. Looking back to the last time they both had full tanks near the beginning of the run-up, on October 9, the subscriber has paid $94.78 to keep his tank topped off, while the control driver spent $96.08 to fill up three times.

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Table of Day-to-Day Events in the Test

Key

• Date - The date we issued this prediction, pertaining to the next business day.
• Buy Today? - Did we recommend buying gas that day ("yes"), or waiting to buy gas the next day ("no")?
• Avg. Price - What was the second-lowest gas price in Chicago? This is the price on the date given, not the predicted price for the next day.
• Sub. Gas in Tank - How much gas did our subscriber have in his tank at the end of that day, when he received his Gas Predictor newsletter?
• Sub. Bought - How much gas did our subscriber buy that day, whether we recommended it or not?
• Sub. Paid - How much did our subscriber pay for the gas he bought that day?
• Ctl. Gas in Tank - How much gas did our control driver have in his tank at the end of that day?
• Ctl. Bought - How much gas did our control driver buy that day?
• Ctl. Paid - How much did our control driver pay for the gas he bought that day?

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