How GasPredictor.com's Atlanta Gas Predictor Newsletter Saves You Money

On this page:

• The Bottom Line
• Description of the test scenario
• Highlights of the test
• Table showing day-to-day events

The Bottom Line of the Test

Our subscriber paid $818.62 for gas since 2/17/2009. Our control driver paid $826.90. Both our subscriber and the control driver are ending the test with 12 gallons of gas in their tanks, so there is no net value in extra gas. So, our subscriber spent $8.28 less for gas than the control driver did. Extrapolating this savings over a full year (262 business days) yields an annual savings of $11.24.

Following our recommendations would save you $11.24 per year, or $6.65 more than the cost of a one-year subscription to the Gas Predictor Newsletter.

And as a bonus, you get to smirk when you see the price go up and you knew it was going to go up. No extra charge.

Back to top  Back to First Anniversary Summary

Description of the Test Scenario

This test compares two hypothetical drivers, the "subscriber" and the "control driver." Each has a car with a 14 gallon tank, each uses exactly two gallons of gasoline every business day, and each has just filled his tank the evening of February 16, 2009.

Our "control driver" does not subscribe to the Gas Predictor Newsletter. He simply leaves his gasoline budget to chance. He fills his tank whenever he gets home from work with only two gallons in the tank. Thus, he buys 12 gallons of gas every sixth business day, without regard to the cost. This represents the way most people buy gas, and shows how much a hypothetical driver would pay for gas without the benefit of our Gas Predictor.

On February 17, our "subscriber" begins receiving his Atlanta Gas Predictor Newsletter by e-mail. Each night, he tries to follow our recommendations, even though he can not always do so. If we recommend buying gas that day, he fills his tank, even if he just filled it the night before. If we recommend holding off and buying gas the next day, he does not buy any gas unless his tank is absolutely empty. If his tank is empty, he buys four gallons of gas, to get him through the next couple of days, and yet leave enough room in his tank that he can take advantage of any buying opportunity that our newsletter recommends.

We recognize, of course, that this test is not quite realistic in several ways. For one thing, nobody uses exactly two gallons of gas every single day. And nobody drives their car only to work, not driving at all on non-business days. Nobody has off every day that the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) commodity exchange is closed. Nobody buys gas by the gallon, instead rounding up to the next dollar or otherwise easy amount of money to enter in their checkbook (or to make change, if they're paying in cash). And even though our predictions are perfectly wonderful, we're sure none of our subscribers would bother to buy just two gallons of gas because we recommended it. (No, even we don't do that.) However, we had to come up with fixed, simple rules in order to make the test a fair comparison between using our predictions and not using them.

For this test of the Atlanta Gas Predictor Newsletter, the price of gas used is the second-lowest price for unleaded regular gasoline in the Atlanta area at about 10:00 AM Eastern.

Back to top  Back to First Anniversary Summary

Highlights of the Test

Note: Highlights occurring before April 3, 2009 are listed in our 100th issue summary.

• During the entire period April 3 through November 18, the control driver bought gas 27 times. Coincidentally, 16 of these times were also days when we recommended buying gas. He just got lucky! A slightly different turn of luck and our subscriber's savings would have been even greater.
• April 16: This is the bottom of one of the sharpest dips in prices this year in Atlanta. Prices had fallen 7 cents on April 14, then another 3 cents on April 15 before climbing a total of 8 cents by April 23. And just by luck, the control driver bought 12 gallons right at the lowest point, while our subscriber held off two days. We had predicted "steady" prices for the 17th and the weekend of the 18th, so prices snuck up by a penny before we recommended buying gas on the 20th.
• April 20 - June 16: During a long period of increasing prices, our subscriber buys two gallons of gas each business day. Picking the first point within this period when both the subscriber and the control driver have full tanks, April 14, and the last such point, June 16, compare how much each spent to keep their tanks full. Between April 27 and June 16, the subscriber spent $153.83. In the same period, the control driver spent $157.13.
• July 14: During a long period of declining prices, our subscriber is forced to buy 4 gallons of gas against our recommendation. However, by sticking with us as much as possible, he is able to fill up again at the bottom of this dip in prices on July 15 On that date, the subscriber pays 2 cents per gallon less than the control driver had on his last fill-up (July 13).
• September 8: Our subscriber fills up with 12 gallons just after a 6-cent drop in prices. He pays $1.08 less for this 12-gallon fill-up than the control driver had paid for the same amount of gas a week earlier.
• September 15: The day before a very large 6-cent price increase, our subscriber tops off with 8 gallons. He saves 48 cents over what he would have paid the next day. This is the biggest one-day savings in Atlanta since we began publishing, even though he didn't even buy a full tank.
• October 16: The day before the largest 1-day price increase in Atlanta this year, our subscriber's tank is full. He's been topping off every day since October 8, and will continue to do so even after the 9-cent pop on the 19th. On the morning of the 15th, both our subscriber and the control driver had full tanks. From then until the next time they both had full tanks, on October 22, the subscriber has paid $27.71 to keep his tank full as prices rise, while the control driver bought 12 gallons on October 22 for $28.43. Our subscriber saved 72 cents that week.
• October 22: By lucky coincidence, the control driver fills up the day before a 5-cent pop.
• October 30: By unlucky coincidence, the control driver fills up the day before a 3-cent drop in prices. At $29.39, this is his second most expensive fill-up all year.

Back to top  Back to First Anniversary Summary

Table of Day-to-Day Events in the Test

Key

• Date - The date we issued this prediction, pertaining to the next business day.
• Buy Today? - Did we recommend buying gas that day ("yes"), or waiting to buy gas the next day ("no")?
• Avg. Price - What was the second-lowest gas price in Atlanta? This is the price on the date given, not the predicted price for the next day.
• Sub. Gas in Tank - How much gas did our subscriber have in his tank at the end of that day, when he received his Gas Predictor newsletter?
• Sub. Bought - How much gas did our subscriber buy that day, whether we recommended it or not?
• Sub. Paid - How much did our subscriber pay for the gas he bought that day?
• Ctl. Gas in Tank - How much gas did our control driver have in his tank at the end of that day?
• Ctl. Bought - How much gas did our control driver buy that day?
• Ctl. Paid - How much did our control driver pay for the gas he bought that day?

Back to top  Back to First Anniversary Summary