How GasPredictor.com's National Gas Predictor Newsletter Saves You Money

On this page:

• The Bottom Line
• Description of the test scenario
• Highlights of the test
• Table showing day-to-day events

The Bottom Line of the Test

Our subscriber paid $355.25 for gas since 11/7/2008. Our control driver paid $343.56. Our subscriber is ending the test with his tank nearly full, and the control driver's tank is nearly empty. The extra 8 gallons in the subscriber's tank is worth $15.92. Subtracting that from the amount he spent for gas means that he spent $4.23 less than the control driver did. Extrapolating this savings over a full year (252 business days) yields an annual savings of $10.65.

Following our recommendations would save you $10.65 per year, or $6.06 (*) more than the cost of a one-year subscription to the Gas Predictor Newsletter.

* Savings based on the current regular subscription price of $4.59. Save even more in April, at $3.99.

And as a bonus, you get to smirk when you see the price go up and you knew it was going to go up. No extra charge.

Back to top  Back to 100th Prediction Summary

Description of the Test Scenario

This test compares two hypothetical drivers, the "subscriber" and the "control driver." Each has a car with a 14 gallon tank, each uses exactly two gallons of gasoline every business day, and each has just filled his tank the evening of November 6, 2008.

Our "control driver" does not subscribe to the Gas Predictor Newsletter. He simply leaves his gasoline budget to chance. He fills his tank whenever he gets home from work with only two gallons in the tank. Thus, he buys 12 gallons of gas every sixth business day, without regard to the cost. This represents the way most people buy gas, and shows how much a hypothetical driver would pay for gas without the benefit of our Gas Preditor.

On November 7, our "subscriber" begins receiving his National Gas Predictor Newsletter by e-mail. Each night, he tries to follow our recommendations, even though he can not always do so. If we recommend buying gas that day, he fills his tank, even if he just filled it the night before. If we recommend holding off and buying gas the next day, he does not buy any gas unless his tank is absolutely empty. If his tank is empty, he buys four gallons of gas, to get him through the next couple of days, and yet leave enough room in his tank that he can take advantage of any buying opportunity that our newsletter recommends.

We recognize, of course, that this test is not quite realistic in several ways. For one thing, nobody uses exactly two gallons of gas every single day. And nobody drives their car only to work, not driving at all on non-business days. Nobody has off every day that the NYMEX commodity exchange is closed. Nobody buys gas by the gallon, instead rounding up to the next dollar or otherwise easy amount of money to enter in their checkbook (or to make change, if they're paying in cash). And even though our predictions are perfectly wonderful, we're sure none of our subscribers would bother to buy just two gallons of gas because we recommended it. (No, even we don't do that.) However, we had to come up with fixed, simple rules in order to make the test a fair comparison between using our predictions and not using them.

For this test of the National Gas Predictor Newsletter, the price of gas used is the average of the prices we use in formulating our nationwide gas price prediction. These are the second-lowest prices for unleaded regular gasoline in each of the twelve cities we monitor. No city actually had these prices for gas, this is just an average among the twelve cities.

Back to top  Back to 100th Prediction Summary

Highlights of the Test

• November 17: Even though we did not recommend buying gas this day, our subscriber was forced to do so. Having waited for lower prices, he paid five cents per gallon less than the control driver did the previous day.
• November 26: Our subscriber filled up for the first time since getting the Gas Predictor Newsletter, and he paid six cents per gallon less than the control driver did two days earlier.
• December 11: Coincidentally, our subscriber and our control driver fill up on the same day. However, having held out until his tank was completely empty, the subscriber is able to by two extra gallons of this 3-cent cheaper gas.
• December 30: Both drivers top off again on the same day. But this time, our subscriber only has to buy two gallons at today's 3-cent higher price, while the control driver buys a full 12 gallons.
• January 20: Near the end of a three-week runup that began on December 30, both drivers have full tanks. But the subscriber only paid $46.78 for gas in that time, while the control driver paid $59.92.
• March 27: Both drivers have full tanks again, but our control driver is paying nearly eight cents per gallon more than he paid at his last fill-up. The subscriber has paid only $23.18 for the last 12 gallons he bought, saving $0.70 over what the control driver paid to fill up.

Back to top  Back to 100th Prediction Summary

Table of Day-to-Day Events in the Test

Key

• Date - The date we issued this prediction, pertaining to the next business day.
• Buy Today? - Did we recommend buying gas that day ("yes"), or waiting to buy gas the next day ("no")?
• Avg. Price - What was the average of all second-lowest gas prices in all twelve cities that go into our national forecast? This is the price on the date given, not the predicted price for the next day.
• Sub. Gas in Tank - How much gas did our subscriber have in his tank at the end of that day, when he received his Gas Predictor newsletter?
• Sub. Bought - How much gas did our subscriber buy that day, whether we recommended it or not?
• Sub. Paid - How much did our subscriber pay for the gas he bought that day?
• Ctl. Gas in Tank - How much gas did our control driver have in his tank at the end of that day?
• Ctl. Bought - How much gas did our control driver buy that day?
• Ctl. Paid - How much did our control driver pay for the gas he bought that day?

Back to top  Back to 100th Prediction Summary