Our subscriber paid $208.75 for gas since 1/12/2009. Our control driver paid $198.85. Our subscriber is ending the test with his tank nearly full, and the control driver's tank is less than half full. The extra 6 gallons in the subscriber's tank is worth $11.69. Subtracting that from the amount he spent for gas means that he spent $1.80 less than the control driver did. Extrapolating this savings over a full year (252 business days) yields an annual savings of $7.96.

Following our recommendations would save you $7.96 per year, or $3.37 (*) more than the cost of a one-year subscription to the Gas Predictor Newsletter.

* Savings based on the current regular subscription price of $4.59. Save even more in April, at $3.99.

And as a bonus, you get to smirk when you see the price go up and you knew it was going to go up. No extra charge.

Description of the Test Scenario

This test compares two hypothetical drivers, the "subscriber" and the "control driver." Each has a car with a 14 gallon tank, each uses exactly two gallons of gasoline every business day, and each has just filled his tank the evening of January 11, 2009.

Our "control driver" does not subscribe to the Gas Predictor Newsletter. He simply leaves his gasoline budget to chance. He fills his tank whenever he gets home from work with only two gallons in the tank. Thus, he buys 12 gallons of gas every sixth business day, without regard to the cost. This represents the way most people buy gas, and shows how much a hypothetical driver would pay for gas without the benefit of our Gas Preditor.

On January 12, our "subscriber" begins receiving his Nashua Gas Predictor Newsletter by e-mail. Each night, he tries to follow our recommendations, even though he can not always do so. If we recommend buying gas that day, he fills his tank, even if he just filled it the night before. If we recommend holding off and buying gas the next day, he does not buy any gas unless his tank is absolutely empty. If his tank is empty, he buys four gallons of gas, to get him through the next couple of days, and yet leave enough room in his tank that he can take advantage of any buying opportunity that our newsletter recommends.

We recognize, of course, that this test is not quite realistic in several ways. For one thing, nobody uses exactly two gallons of gas every single day. And nobody drives their car only to work, not driving at all on non-business days. Nobody has off every day that the NYMEX commodity exchange is closed. Nobody buys gas by the gallon, instead rounding up to the next dollar or otherwise easy amount of money to enter in their checkbook (or to make change, if they're paying in cash). And even though our predictions are perfectly wonderful, we're sure none of our subscribers would bother to buy just two gallons of gas because we recommended it. (No, even we don't do that.) However, we had to come up with fixed, simple rules in order to make the test a fair comparison between using our predictions and not using them.

For this test of the Nashua Gas Predictor Newsletter, the price of gas used is the second-lowest price for unleaded regular gasoline in the Nashua area at about 4:00 PM Eastern.

Highlights of the Test

January 12 - February 17: Our recommendation was to buy every day but one in this 25-business-day stretch, and our subscriber avoided buying on a peak day. Both the subscriber and the control driver end this period with 12 gallons in their tanks, but the subscriber has only paid $84.91, while the control driver paid $85.99.
February 25: Our subscriber has avoided buying gas as it fell by six cents, then fills up right before it jumps by four cents a gallon.
Feb 26 - March 30: During another protracted run-up, the subscriber keeps his tank full for only $87.01, while the control driver pays $91.27. The both begin and end this period with 12 gallons in their tanks.

Table of Day-to-Day Events in the Test

Date	Buy Today?	Avg. Price	Sub. Gas in Tank	Sub. Bought	Sub. Paid	Ctl. Gas in Tank	Ctl. Bought	Ctl. Paid
1/12/2009	Yes	1.659	12	2	$3.32	12	0	$0.00
1/13/2009	Yes	1.659	12	2	$3.32	10	0	$0.00
1/14/2009	Yes	1.669	12	2	$3.34	8	0	$0.00
1/15/2009	Yes	1.699	12	2	$3.40	6	0	$0.00
1/16/2009	Yes	1.699	12	2	$3.40	4	0	$0.00
1/20/2009	Yes	1.729	12	2	$3.46	2	12	$20.75
1/21/2009	Yes	1.729	12	2	$3.46	12	0	$0.00
1/22/2009	No	1.739	12	0	$0.00	10	0	$0.00
1/23/2009	Yes	1.729	10	4	$6.92	8	0	$0.00
1/26/2009	Yes	1.739	12	2	$3.48	6	0	$0.00
1/27/2009	Yes	1.739	12	2	$3.48	4	0	$0.00
1/28/2009	Yes	1.739	12	2	$3.48	2	12	$20.87
1/29/2009	Yes	1.779	12	2	$3.56	12	0	$0.00
1/30/2009	Yes	1.799	12	2	$3.60	10	0	$0.00
2/2/2009	Yes	1.799	12	2	$3.60	8	0	$0.00
2/3/2009	Yes	1.809	12	2	$3.62	6	0	$0.00
2/4/2009	Yes	1.819	12	2	$3.64	4	0	$0.00
2/5/2009	Yes	1.839	12	2	$3.68	2	12	$22.07
2/6/2009	Yes	1.839	12	2	$3.68	12	0	$0.00
2/9/2009	Yes	1.839	12	2	$3.68	10	0	$0.00
2/10/2009	Yes	1.849	12	2	$3.70	8	0	$0.00
2/11/2009	Yes	1.849	12	2	$3.70	6	0	$0.00
2/12/2009	Yes	1.859	12	2	$3.72	4	0	$0.00
2/13/2009	Yes	1.859	12	2	$3.72	2	12	$22.31
2/17/2009	No	1.859	12	0	$0.00	12	0	$0.00
2/18/2009	No	1.799	10	0	$0.00	10	0	$0.00
2/19/2009	No	1.799	8	0	$0.00	8	0	$0.00
2/20/2009	No	1.799	6	0	$0.00	6	0	$0.00
2/23/2009	No	1.799	4	0	$0.00	4	0	$0.00
2/24/2009	No	1.799	2	0	$0.00	2	12	$21.59
2/25/2009	Yes	1.799	0	14	$25.19	12	0	$0.00
2/26/2009	Yes	1.839	12	2	$3.68	10	0	$0.00
2/27/2009	Yes	1.839	12	2	$3.68	8	0	$0.00
3/2/2009	Yes	1.859	12	2	$3.72	6	0	$0.00
3/3/2009	Yes	1.859	12	2	$3.72	4	0	$0.00
3/4/2009	Yes	1.879	12	2	$3.76	2	12	$22.55
3/5/2009	Yes	1.899	12	2	$3.80	12	0	$0.00
3/6/2009	Yes	1.899	12	2	$3.80	10	0	$0.00
3/9/2009	Yes	1.899	12	2	$3.80	8	0	$0.00
3/10/2009	Yes	1.899	12	2	$3.80	6	0	$0.00
3/11/2009	Yes	1.899	12	2	$3.80	4	0	$0.00
3/12/2009	Yes	1.899	12	2	$3.80	2	12	$22.79
3/13/2009	Yes	1.899	12	2	$3.80	12	0	$0.00
3/16/2009	Yes	1.899	12	2	$3.80	10	0	$0.00
3/17/2009	Yes	1.899	12	2	$3.80	8	0	$0.00
3/18/2009	Yes	1.899	12	2	$3.80	6	0	$0.00
3/19/2009	Yes	1.899	12	2	$3.80	4	0	$0.00
3/20/2009	Yes	1.899	12	2	$3.80	2	12	$22.79
3/23/2009	Yes	1.899	12	2	$3.80	12	0	$0.00
3/24/2009	Yes	1.899	12	2	$3.80	10	0	$0.00
3/25/2009	Yes	1.899	12	2	$3.80	8	0	$0.00
3/26/2009	Yes	1.899	12	2	$3.80	6	0	$0.00
3/27/2009	Yes	1.919	12	2	$3.84	4	0	$0.00
3/30/2009	Yes	1.929	12	2	$3.86	2	12	$23.15
3/31/2009	Yes	1.939	12	2	$3.88	12	0	$0.00
4/1/2009	Yes	1.939	12	2	$3.88	10	0	$0.00
4/2/2009	Yes	1.939	12	2	$3.88	8	0	$0.00
4/3/2009	Yes	1.949	12	N/A	N/A	6	0	$0.00

Key

Date - The date we issued this prediction, pertaining to the next business day.
Buy Today? - Did we recommend buying gas that day ("yes"), or waiting to buy gas the next day ("no")?
Avg. Price - What was the second-lowest gas price in Nashua? This is the price on the date given, not the predicted price for the next day.
Sub. Gas in Tank - How much gas did our subscriber have in his tank at the end of that day, when he received his Gas Predictor newsletter?
Sub. Bought - How much gas did our subscriber buy that day, whether we recommended it or not?
Sub. Paid - How much did our subscriber pay for the gas he bought that day?
Ctl. Gas in Tank - How much gas did our control driver have in his tank at the end of that day?
Ctl. Bought - How much gas did our control driver buy that day?
Ctl. Paid - How much did our control driver pay for the gas he bought that day?


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Disclaimer: This Web site, and all of its predictions and prediction devices, are for educational and entertainment purposes only. We will not be responsible for incorrect predictions, or for any damage or losses you may incur as a result of using these predictions. While we believe that our prediction algorithm works, you must accept responsibility for your choice to use this information.

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