How GasPredictor.com's Houston Gas Predictor Newsletter Saves You Money

On this page:

• The Bottom Line
• Description of the test scenario
• Highlights of the test
• Table showing day-to-day events

The Bottom Line of the Test

Our subscriber paid $66.72 for gas since 3/9/2009. Our control driver paid $64.28. Our subscriber is ending the test with two more gallons of gas in his tank than the control driver has. The extra 2 gallons in the subscriber's tank is worth $3.80. Subtracting that from the amount he spent for gas means that he spent $1.36 less than the control driver did. Extrapolating this savings over a full year (252 business days) yields an annual savings of $18.04.

Following our recommendations would save you $18.04 per year, or $13.45 (*) more than the cost of a one-year subscription to the Gas Predictor Newsletter.

* Savings based on the current regular subscription price of $4.59. Save even more in April, at $3.99.

And as a bonus, you get to smirk when you see the price go up and you knew it was going to go up. No extra charge.

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Description of the Test Scenario

This test compares two hypothetical drivers, the "subscriber" and the "control driver." Each has a car with a 14 gallon tank, each uses exactly two gallons of gasoline every business day, and each has just filled his tank the evening of March 8, 2009.

Our "control driver" does not subscribe to the Gas Predictor Newsletter. He simply leaves his gasoline budget to chance. He fills his tank whenever he gets home from work with only two gallons in the tank. Thus, he buys 12 gallons of gas every sixth business day, without regard to the cost. This represents the way most people buy gas, and shows how much a hypothetical driver would pay for gas without the benefit of our Gas Preditor.

On March 9, our "subscriber" begins receiving his Houston Gas Predictor Newsletter by e-mail. Each night, he tries to follow our recommendations, even though he can not always do so. If we recommend buying gas that day, he fills his tank, even if he just filled it the night before. If we recommend holding off and buying gas the next day, he does not buy any gas unless his tank is absolutely empty. If his tank is empty, he buys four gallons of gas, to get him through the next couple of days, and yet leave enough room in his tank that he can take advantage of any buying opportunity that our newsletter recommends.

We recognize, of course, that this test is not quite realistic in several ways. For one thing, nobody uses exactly two gallons of gas every single day. And nobody drives their car only to work, not driving at all on non-business days. Nobody has off every day that the NYMEX commodity exchange is closed. Nobody buys gas by the gallon, instead rounding up to the next dollar or otherwise easy amount of money to enter in their checkbook (or to make change, if they're paying in cash). And even though our predictions are perfectly wonderful, we're sure none of our subscribers would bother to buy just two gallons of gas because we recommended it. (No, even we don't do that.) However, we had to come up with fixed, simple rules in order to make the test a fair comparison between using our predictions and not using them.

For this test of the Houston Gas Predictor Newsletter, the price of gas used is the second-lowest price for unleaded regular gasoline in the Houston area at about 4:00 PM Central.

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Highlights of the Test

• March 12: For one day, prices decline by 2 cents a gallon, then go right back up. Our subscriber is able to take advantage of this one-day bargain, while the control driver just ignores the opportunity.
• March 20: Our subscriber has a full tank on the day prices "pop" by 6 cents a gallon. By the time the control driver fills up on March 24, there will have been another 7 cents of increases.
• March 25: Prices reach a peak after a four day run-up of 16 cents a gallon. Our subscriber knows this is a peak, and holds off buying gas until the next day, when prices are 2 cents a gallon lower.
• March 27 - April 2: Our subscriber avoids buying gas during this 4-day peak until prices have fallen back to their March 25 level.

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Table of Day-to-Day Events in the Test

Key

• Date - The date we issued this prediction, pertaining to the next business day.
• Buy Today? - Did we recommend buying gas that day ("yes"), or waiting to buy gas the next day ("no")?
• Avg. Price - What was the second-lowest gas price in Houston? This is the price on the date given, not the predicted price for the next day.
• Sub. Gas in Tank - How much gas did our subscriber have in his tank at the end of that day, when he received his Gas Predictor newsletter?
• Sub. Bought - How much gas did our subscriber buy that day, whether we recommended it or not?
• Sub. Paid - How much did our subscriber pay for the gas he bought that day?
• Ctl. Gas in Tank - How much gas did our control driver have in his tank at the end of that day?
• Ctl. Bought - How much gas did our control driver buy that day?
• Ctl. Paid - How much did our control driver pay for the gas he bought that day?

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